Where do the Twins go from here?

Baseball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.

Outside of someone named Joe Mauer, Nathan is probably the most irreplaceable player on the Minnesota roster. Quite frankly, you can make the argument that Nathan is the more vital piece to the Twins' puzzle than the reigning American League Most Valuable Player.

The bad news started for the Twins over the weekend, when Nathan experienced tightness in his elbow after facing just one batter in an exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox.

He then left Florida and traveled back to Minnesota for tests, which revealed the tear. The team is going to get a second opinion, but once swelling in the elbow subsides, Nathan, in all likelihood, will have to undergo dreaded Tommy John surgery.

So where do the Twins go from here? With Nathan in the mix they were a heavy favorite to once again win the AL Central. Now, not so much.

I mean, how exactly do you replace a guy who in the last five years has saved more games than any other closer in baseball? It is impossible, you can't, especially if you are the Twins.

There are closers out there for the taking. Cleveland's Kerry Wood and Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero ring a bell right off the bat. The problem there, of course, is that while the Twins could probably pull off a deal, they are paying Nathan $11.25 million this season.

Can you really see them shelling out an additional $10+ million for the closer position? It is not going to happen.

San Diego's Heath Bell could also probably be had. He only makes about $4 million this season, but the Twins would have to unload the farm for him.

There is an intriguing option out there for Ron Gardenhire, and he does not have to look very far to find it. That option is lefty Francisco Liriano, who by all accounts has looked about as good this past winter as at any time since undergoing his own Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.

Down in the Dominican, Liriano was throwing his fastball in the mid-90s along with a "filthy" slider. Minnesota had high hopes for him finally living up to that world of potential he flashed in the 2006 campaign, when he went 12-3 and drew comparisons to Johan Santana.

Quite simply, the Twins were counting on him being their ace this season.

I had already pegged Liriano as the key to the Twins' season before I heard the awful news on Nathan. Now, it is even more apparent that he will make or break the Twins this season. If they decide to keep him in rotation, there is an even bigger need for him to be an ace. And if they move him to the pen, well, all this worrying today could be rendered moot.

Of course, I am not sure that Liriano can handle it from a physical standpoint. It has been over three years since his own surgery, and unlike other pitchers who have had it, he has never really been the same.

Actually, he has regressed.

If he is physically up to the task, though, he is the Twins' best option from an in-house standpoint. But then again, if they move him, could Minnesota get by with a rotation of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing?

That is not great, but it is not awful either. The Twins were a favorite to win the division even before people knew what they were going to get from Liriano. Not having him in the rotation may not hurt them, simply because he was such an unknown.

Early on, it would be a struggle for Liriano to go on back-to-back nights, but the Twins do have a former closer on their roster in right-hander Jon Rauch, who saved 17 games for the Washington Nationals in 2008. Rauch is the perfect guy to ease Liriano into an everyday role.

While it sounds easy enough to convert Liriano, Minnesota may not want to mess with him any further, especially on such short notice. We are just under a month away from the start of the season. I am not sure they can get his arm into that kind of shape just yet. He would need a little extra conditioning in Fort Myers.

But like I said, Rauch should be able to hold down the fort until Liriano is ready.

I know it is more important to have a dominating ace than a closer, but Liriano hasn't come close to being the pitcher he was before the surgery. Who knows if he ever will be again? I say make the move now.

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Football Betting

NFL Football Betting Online

The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.

Thursday, August 21

NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37

NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games

Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.

Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.

Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.

That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.

Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.

CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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