This Week in Auto Racing September 21 - September 23

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/18/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's round two of NASCAR's "Chase for the Nextel Cup" as racing in Dover dominates a light racing weekend.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Dodge Dealers 400 - Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE

After Clint Bowyer grabbed his first career "Cup" win in dominating fashion at the New Hampshire International Speedway, the series heads 350 miles south to Dover, DE for round No.2 of the 10-race "Chase for the Nextel Cup."

The win jumped the second-year driver from 12th place to fourth in the "Chase" standings behind only four-time champion Nextel Cup Jeff Gordon, defending series champion Jimmie Johnson and two-time Nextel Cup champion Tony Stewart. That's pretty heady company for the 28-year-old Emporia, KS native.

Bowyer headed a group of seven "Chase" drivers who earned top-10s in the first race. Nine of the "Chase" drivers were in the top-15.

The three drivers who fell back in the "Chase" opener were: Kevin Harvick (17th), Jeff Burton (18th) and Kurt Busch (25th). But even those results were not as bad as Johnson's 39th-place finish in last year's first race at NHIS and Johnson rebounded to win his first title.

In the three years that the "Chase" as been in existence, the results have shown that there is no one absolute method to winning the championship.

In 2004 Busch won with consistency posting nine top-10s in 10 races. The following year Stewart won with just seven top-10s, but no finish worse than 25th. Last year Johnson started the "Chase" finishing 39th, 13th, 14th and 24th before going "crazy" - finishing first or second in five consecutive races. A ninth-place finish at Homestead sealed Johnson's Nextel Cup championship.

The championship still goes through Hendrick Motorsports and Johnson. His sixth-place finish at NHIS left him in a tie for the lead with teammate Gordon. The No.48 Lowe's Chevrolet driver has been in the top-10 for 25 weeks and Gordon has been either first or second for 25 of the 27 weeks.

Sunday's Dodge Dealers 400 will be another "Car of Tomorrow" race and Hendrick Motorsports cars have won six of the 12 previous races with the new car. Gordon won at Phoenix and Darlington, Johnson at Martinsville and Richmond (twice) and Kyle Busch won at Bristol.

But when the series was last at Dover, it was Martin Truex Jr. with the victory. Since earning his first career Nextel Cup victory in early June, Truex Jr. has reeled off seven top-10 finishes in his last 14 starts. A fifth- place result at NHIS jumped the Mayetta, NJ native, who considers the Dover track his "home track," to sixth in the championship.

"We needed a good race to start off the Chase and we got it," said Truex Jr. on his team's website. "You definitely don't want to dig yourself into a hole the first race. I'm really proud of all the guys. Now we can go to Dover with some momentum."

He has momentum in the form of confidence after crushing the field in the Autism 400, winning by a whopping 7.355 seconds. At the mid-point of the race, Truex Jr. was beginning to run away with it. He was already more than four seconds ahead of Carl Edwards and six seconds over eventual second-place finisher Ryan Newman. Truex Jr.'s torrid pace left just 13 cars on the lead lap as they passed the 250-lap mark. The race came down to three drivers as the laps dwindled down. Truex Jr. led Johnson by 2.569-second with 25 laps to go, but Johnson blew a right-side tire trying to keep up with the No.1 DEI Chevrolet and Newman was too far back to challenge for the win.

The victory, and the confidence that the win brings to a team, will make Truex Jr. a huge threat this weekend.

Busch

RoadLoans.com 200 - Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE

While the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" shows six drivers within 40 points at the top of the charts, in the Busch Series there is no such "race."

The Busch Series uses the "old" scoring system in which points are accumulated over the entire season. Unfortunately, that means that in some years the championship sees a driver run away and hide from the competition. In 2006 Kevin Harvick beat Carl Edwards by a record 824 points. This season is more of the same with Edwards holding a 733-point edge over Harvick and David Reutimann. If Edwards can expand the lead to 806 points over the next two events, he can clinch the title just by showing up the rest of the way.

But still, there are seven more races to be run and won. And racers like to win no matter whether they are out of the championship or not.

The last time the series was at Dover, Edwards led 122 of 200 laps and edged Denny Hamlin for the win.

With 17 laps remaining Matt Kenseth led the field to the restart. Kenseth received heavy pressure from Edwards, who was running on fresher tires. Fourteen laps to go and Edwards took the inside lane to take over the lead while Kenseth fell all the way to fourth. The 10th caution flag came out with 10 laps remaining when Brad Keselowski crashed. With only five laps left in the race Edwards led Hamlin, Scott Wimmer, Kenseth and Casey Mears to the restart. The No.60 Ford pulled away as Hamlin, Wimmer and Mears battled for second. After seeing the white flag Edwards had comfortable lead when some back markers crashed to bring out final caution flag of the day. Edwards crossed the finish line under the caution flag for the win.

Craftsman

Smith's Las Vegas 350 - Las Vegas Motor Speedway - Las Vegas, NV

The truck series doesn't need to artificially create a close race like the Nextel Cup Series. That's because Ron Hornaday Jr. and Mike Skinner have both been spectacular in 2007 and the result is a great championship race.

Skinner led for most of the season, but Hornaday Jr. never let up and two races ago took over the top spot in the standings. He had a four-point edge heading into last week's race in New Hampshire.

On the 1.058-mile NHIS oval Hornaday Jr. put on a "show" leading 174 of 200 laps en route to the victory. The win gave the No.33 Kevin Harvick Inc. Chevrolet driver a 29-point margin over Skinner heading into this week's race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

"It's just awesome to get this truck to do what it's done," said Hornaday Jr. "We've finished second three times in this truck, and now we've finally won one. This truck was unbelievable."

"We just flat out got our butts whipped today," Skinner said. "Ronnie put on a clinic."

The race at LVMS is the first of four events at a 1.5-mile oval over the final seven races. Skinner won at LVMS last fall and also won the last time the series was on a 1.5 track at Kentucky. But Hornaday Jr. can argue that he is pretty good on 1.5-mile ovals too, with wins at Lowe's, Atlanta and Homestead.

Both drivers have won four times this year. Skinner leads in poles (9), driver rating (120.4), winnings ($585,600), laps led (956) and top-five (14). Hornaday Jr. leads in points (2,964), and top-10s (17). At LVMS Hornaday Jr. has earned four top-fives in six starts.

It should be another great showdown between the two competitors.

"If we don't do it, Skinner will, so we've got to go out there and try to dominate and lead as many laps as we can," said Hornaday Jr.

There are also two open-wheel drivers making their debut at LVMS. Former Formula One driver Jacques Villeneuve is scheduled to get behind the wheel of the No.27 Toyota and former IRL driver Buddy Lazier will pilot the No.15 Chevrolet.

"IROC really was an eye-opener for me into the world of stock car racing," said Lazier. "It was probably the most fun racing experience for me in my 20 years of professional motorsports. I look forward to a good start and finish and see what develops from there."

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.