This Week in Auto Racing September 14 - September 16

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR begins the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" this Sunday in New Hampshire, while across the pond, the Formula One championship heats up both on and off the track.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Sylvania 300 - New Hampshire International Speedway - Loudon, NH

The preliminaries are out of the way, the pretenders are sitting on the sideline and now its time to determine a Nextel Cup champion. There are 12 drivers remaining in the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" and all 12 could realistically be champion.

Jimmie Johnson, who finished the regular season in fourth place, will begin the 10-race "Chase" with the most points by virtue of his series-leading six victories. The defending series champion started the season strong, slumped a bit in the summer, but has returned to form with two consecutive wins at California and Richmond. He appears ready in every phase of the game.

"It's a great feeling to be able to go into the Chase leading the points," said Johnson. "That's something you obviously want to do, not only from the points standpoint, but from a psychological standpoint it's a benefit for sure."

Johnson's Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon, the four-time series champion, will start with the second-most points - 20 less than the No.48 Chevrolet team. Gordon has led the series for 21 of 26 weeks and his 21 top-10s are by far the best in Nextel Cup.

Two-time series champion Tony Stewart will start with 30 points fewer than Johnson, but that shouldn't matter if Stewart continues to run as he has for most of the summer and into the fall. The No.20 Joe Gibbs Racing Chevrolet driver began the season with a 43rd-place finish in Daytona and didn't get his first win until July, but since that point he has been a force to be reckoned with. Since the race in Chicagoland, Stewart has earned three wins among seven top-10s in eight races.

"In this day and age with NASCAR being as technical as it is and as advanced as it is technology-wise, it's going to be hard for the drivers to make the difference. It's more about the team, and we've got a great team at Joe Gibbs Racing."

Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch will begin the "Chase" 40 points behind Johnson, but both drivers have the ability and the teams behind them to win it all. Edwards and his No.99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford team have come on strong winning twice since mid-June. Busch was in danger of not making the "Chase" at all before the team came together in June. While others saw their chances melt away in the summer heat, Busch has not finished worse than 11th in a race in two months. Included in that streak are wins at Pocono and Michigan.

There are six drivers who will start 50 points behind the leader. Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., 2003 Nextel Cup champion Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton and 2007 Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick. All six could win the title if things break their way. Hamlin, Stewart's teammate at JGR, has been the most consistent with one win, 10 top-fives and 15 top-10s.

Even Clint Bowyer, the only driver in the "Chase" without a win, has the team and talent to win it all. Bowyer will have two teammates in the "Chase" with him in Burton and Harvick which should help all three challenge for the championship.

As has been the case in the past, winning the 2007 Nextel Cup title is all about avoiding the bad races even more than winning them. Put together 10 solid efforts and you win the title. But two bad results and you are done, kaput, finished.

Remember back to 2004 when Johnson had two straight finishes outside the top-30 and despite winning four of the final six (six top-six finishes) came up eight points short. Last year, Johnson won just once, but had only one bad race (New Hampshire) and won the title.

"This is going to be the most competitive Chase we've seen," Johnson said.

It all begins on Sunday.

Craftsman

New Hampshire 200 - New Hampshire International Speedway - Loudon, NH

With eight races left in the championship, it's still possible for "soon-to- be-a-Nextel-Cup-driver" Travis Kvapil (-194) and 2006 Craftsman Truck Series champion Todd Bodine (-263) to get back into the fray, but unlikely.

No, it appears that the truck series title will be won by either points leader Ron Hornaday Jr. or Mike Skinner (-4).

Skinner has led the championship for most of the season, since the third race in Atlanta, but fell out of the lead two weeks ago when Hornaday Jr. finished second at the Gateway International Raceway. It was Hornaday Jr.'s 16th top-10 in 17 starts and gave him a slight edge heading down the stretch.

Hornaday Jr.'s four-point lead over Skinner is the second-closest margin at this point of the season in series history. Only Scott Riggs' one-point lead over Joe Ruttman in 2001 was closer.

Hornaday Jr. has a win at New Hampshire (1996) and has been more consistent there than Skinner finishing sixth and fifth the last two years.

"What can I say about Loudon, except that I really enjoy the track," said Hornaday Jr. "I have led laps in most of the races there and gone to victory lane once. Like I always say - my favorite tracks are the ones I win at."

But Skinner has been pretty good this season leading the series in winnings ($552,700), laps led (943), wins (4), poles (9) and top-fives (12). He finished second in 2006 at NHIS, but was a mediocre 24th in 2005.

Johnny Benson has won the last two events and is the defending champion at NHIS.

FORMULA ONE

Belgium Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps - Spa, Belgium

Before Sunday's race begins there are some off-the-track issues to be determined. On Thursday, the World Motor Sport Council will meet in Paris to begin a hearing on "spygate" where Ferrari has accused McLaren of stealing secret information.

Specifically, Ferrari has accused McLaren of benefiting from a 780-page packet of information sent by former Ferrari performance director Nigel Stepney to McLaren's now-suspended chief designer Mike Coughlan.

McLaren was found guilty at a first hearing in July of "fraudulent conduct", but the WMSC said there was insufficient evidence that the team had used the information to their advantage.

In a worst-case scenario, McLaren could be kicked out of the competition both this year and next, but that is highly unlikely.

McLaren is also appealing a ruling in Hungary that took away all their manufacturer points earned for that weekend (15). They currently lead the manufacturers championship by 11 points.

McLaren's rookie Lewis Hamilton is trying to ignore all the off-the-track happenings because he is in the middle of a titanic battle with his teammate for the driver title. Currently Hamilton leads the two-time World Champion by just three points, down from 14 points after the French Grand Prix.

Alonso has won two of the last four events and finished second the last time the series visited the famous Spa-Francorchamps circuit in 2005.

Kimi Raikkonen won the race in 2005 driving for McLaren. He is still alive in the drivers championship, just 18 points back after finishing on the podium for three straight races. He has surpassed Felipe Massa as Ferrari's best chance to win the drivers title because Massa has falter badly in two of the last three events, finishing 13th at Hungary and 21st in Italy.

"All the upcoming races are crucial - can't make any more mistakes," said Raikkonen at Monza.

That advise will work for everybody. It's time to be at your best if you want to wear the Formula One crown.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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