Big Guns in the Big Sky

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Ogden, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big Sky Conference will not be short on offensive firepower this coming season. From the top down, the conference is laden with talented, proven, and productive offensive threats.

Preseason favorite Montana boasts two Walter Payton Award watch lists members. Running back Chase Reynolds was a finalist in 2009, finishing 13th in the voting. A senior, Reynolds has rushed for 3,075 yards and 44 touchdowns over the last two seasons.

Joining Reynolds on the Payton watch list is senior quarterback Andrew Selle. Selle manned an offense which finished first in the Big Sky in scoring last season. He threw for 3,043 yards, 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions, while leading the conference in passing efficiency.

Despite those gaudy numbers, first year head coach Robin Pflugrad describes himself as "cautiously optimistic" about his team's prospects this season. To Pflugrad, roster turnover is the main cause for concern. Most notably, the Grizzlies are without First Team All-American wide receiver Marc Mariani, who recently took his talents to the NFL's Tennessee Titans. Also gone are key offensive line components Levi Horn and Chris Dyke. In speaking of his team's inexperience, Pflugrad says, "We have some guys who haven't been in the war together."

Still, as the battle for the Big Sky title nears commencement, Montana appears poised to prevail. The going may get tough however, as many teams in the conference have weapons to burn.

Montana first runs into a stalwart Big Sky gun when they visit Eastern Washington on September 18th. Waiting on EWU's new red turf will be the Eagles' own Payton watch member, Taiwan Jones.

Says Pflugrad of Jones, "When he turns the corner we don't have anyone that can catch him." The numbers bear this out. In 2009, Jones averaged 7.5 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns. Originally a cornerback, Jones also proved to be a dual threat for Eastern Washington, catching 40 passes for 561 yards.

Perhaps the biggest threat facing any Big Sky defense this year is Northern Arizona senior quarterback Michael Herrick. Herrick, a Payton nominee, has also been named first-team preseason all-conference. Herrick had a sensational year in 2009, completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,356 yards and 22 touchdowns. Sure to add quake to defensive coordinators' kneecaps is the word out of Flagstaff that Herrick appears to have improved his accuracy leading into the 2010 season.

Not to be outdone, senior Weber State quarterback Cameron Higgins will look to create some fireworks of his own. Higgins has been a candidate for the Walter Payton Award each of the past two seasons. He has also guided Weber State to two consecutive FCS playoff births. Higgins will meet Herrick on November 13, in Flagstaff. The meeting is sure to be a summit of gunslinging prowess.

In all, it appears there are many gunners aiming for the well-adorned bull's eye on Montana's back. With the Grizzlies facing some significant question marks, the battle for the Big Sky could come down to who has the biggest weapon to hit that target.

2010 Preseason Conference Poll (coaches and media)

1. Montana 2. Eastern Washington 3. Montana State 4. Weber State 5. Northern Arizona 6. Sacramento State 7. Northern Colorado 8. Portland State 9. Idaho State

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.