Bengals' Offense Explodes, Defense Exposed

Football Betting Lines

09/18/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chalk the Bengals' 51-45 loss to the Browns on Sunday up as a fluke if you wish, Cincinnati fans, but be sure not to pick and choose the elements you'd like to keep.

If you're discounting the 328-yard, five-touchdown day of formerly anonymous Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson, than you also have to admit Carson Palmer's 401-yard, six-TD day was something of an aberration.

Don't think the combined 14 catches, 246 yards, and three touchdowns that went to Browns targets Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards can happen again? Then wipe out Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh's combined 19 grabs, 278 yards, and four TDs.

The 211 rushing yard day of Browns running back Jamal Lewis can also go, if you'll allow Rudi Johnson's 118-yard day to be brushed aside along with it.

Oh sure, a proven Cincinnati offense is capable of putting up big numbers every time it steps on the field, that much we know. But the Bengals have also proven in their four years under head coach Marvin Lewis that they're more than capable of defensive meltdowns like the one experienced Sunday. It's all part of the same vexing package that will shadow the Bengals for the rest of the year, so try to enjoy the ride.

We should have seen this coming in August, when Lewis put a defense on the field that had very few measurable alterations to the one that ranked tied for last in the league against the pass and 30th overall last year.

Moving second-year man Ahmad Brooks to a full-time job at middle linebacker, placing Redskins castoff Lemar Marshall next to him on the strong side, and adding rookie cornerback Leon Hall to the secondary rotation wasn't about to transform last year's defense into a world-beating, or even steady one.

The flaws were masked in the opener against Baltimore, when the Ravens ended drives of their own accord by turning the ball over six times.

Knowing that protecting the ball meant beating the Bengals, the Browns' offensive game plan revolved around protecting the ball, and eventually beating the Bengals. In embarrassing, flag-football fashion, too.

"Obviously, it was not a very good performance," said Lewis. "We didn't play well in any of the three phases. It's very disappointing how we played defensively. We didn't play well on third down. We allowed them to rush for over 200 yards and we weren't very sharp. As the game went on we seemed to invent some things and tried to do too much individually. Offensively, we hung in there, although we didn't do as well on third down as we know we are capable of. We had chances, but came up a little short."

Bengals end Justin Smith had harsher words for his group, showing his frustration at being forced to work with a green unit.

"We scaled down the defense to play base stuff; we weren't on the same page," said Smith. "Anytime you do that in this league, you're going to see what happened today. Guys are too good, too fast, and too strong to not be where you're supposed to be. It's ridiculous and that's what we did all day."

Where do the Bengals go from here?

To Seattle, for starters, where Cincinnati will face a team fighting mad over a frustrating victory of its own. Getting things corrected in seven days against former Pro Bowlers Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, and one-time Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch is going to be an extraordinarily difficult feat for Lewis' team, and looming just over the horizon is a Monday night meeting with New England in Week 4.

If the Bengals play the Patriots the way they did the Browns, look out, NFL scoring record, though noting the early date of the season, Lewis was still preaching patience in his Monday press conference

"As I've always said, you're never as good as you seem to be after a win, and never as bad as you seem to be after a loss," remarked Lewis. "So we just need to play football -- make our corrections and move forward."

LEWIS NOT HANGING CHAD?

Chad Johnson had a huge statistical outing against the Browns, turning in an 11-catch, 209-yard, two touchdown game that ranked as one of the best of the receiver's illustrious career.

The 11 receptions equaled a career-high, set against Detroit in 2005 and matched in a loss to San Diego last season. The 200-yard game was the second of his career, ranking just behind the 260-yard day against the Chargers.

Johnson now leads the NFL in receiving yards with 304 on the year.

Despite the performance, much of the talk after the game was in reference to comments ex-Steelers head coach Bill Cowher made on CBS' post-game show, when he remarked that he would not tolerate Johnson's post-touchdown shenanigans. On Sunday, Johnson jumped into the Cleveland stands following the second of his TDs.

Lewis was left to defend his star wideout when the dust settled on Monday, and also took some shots at Cowher's agenda.

"It's unfortunate [Cowher] said that because he would know better than that, because he knows me as well," Lewis said. "He's coached Chad in the Pro Bowl and all he had was glowing things to say about Chad. Now he's in a different position, where part of the job is to create controversy. It's unfortunate. Now he's in a position where he can create controversy."

In other Cincinnati receiver news, T.J. Houshmandzadeh's eight receptions give him 17 for the year, which is tied for the league lead along with New England's Randy Moss and Denver's Javon Walker as Week 3 begins.

PALMER PARADE

It was a bittersweet day for Palmer, more bitter than sweet due to the loss.

The six touchdown passes were a personal best for the former No. 1 pick, surpassing his previous high of four, set against Cleveland in 2004 and matched against the Steelers last season; and also topping the team mark of five established by Boomer Esiason in 1986 and matched by Esiason in 1989.

The 401 yards were the second-most of Palmer's career, bettered only by the 440 he put up in that infamous 49-41 loss to San Diego last season.

As in that defeat, Palmer was in no mood to celebrate afterward.

"This is one of the tougher losses," said Palmer, who now leads the NFL in touchdown passes with eight. "I thought we had this win. I thought for sure we would go down there and score at the end. I feel like I'm mourning over a loss."

NEXT UP

The all-time series between the Bengals and Seahawks is knotted, 8-8, with Cincinnati evening the series by virtue of a 27-24 home victory during the 2003 campaign. Seattle won the previous meeting, a 37-20 triumph at home in 1999. The Bengals are 0-2 in road games against the Seahawks since earning a 20-17 overtime win in the great Northwest in 1994.

Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren is 4-1 in his career against Cincinnati, including 3-0 while with Green Bay from 1992 through 1998. The Bengals' Lewis is 0-1 against both the Seahawks and Holmgren all-time.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

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