2010 Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th Annual Big Ten Conference Tournament gets underway on Thursday, March 11th from Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. Purdue is the defending tournament champion, having topped Ohio State in last year's title tilt, 65-61. It was the Boilermakers' first-ever Big Ten Tournament championship, leaving four teams (five if you count Michigan's vacated title in 1998) still to claim the crown.

The top five seeds in this year's event received byes through to the quarterfinals, leaving six teams to battle in the opening round on Thursday. Three teams finished with identical 14-4 league ledgers, as Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State all had solid seasons and shared the Big Ten's regular- season title. The Buckeyes received the top seed in the tournament as they won the tie-breaker, and the Boilermakers and Spartans were given the second and third seeds, respectively.

The first game of the event pits eighth-seeded Michigan against ninth-seeded Iowa. The winner advances to play Ohio State on Friday afternoon. The Wolverines (14-16, 7-11) limp into the postseason having lost four of their last five games, and they have performed poorly outside of Ann Arbor all season, going just 3-8 in true road games and 4-10 when you factor in a 1-2 mark in neutral-site affairs. UM, which has a record of 5-10 all-time in the Big Ten tourney, boasts two double-digit scorers in the form of Manny Harris (17.7 ppg, 4.1 apg) and DeShawn Sims (16.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg), both All-Big Ten performers who finished the regular season ranked in the top-five on the league's scoring list. The team as a whole is netting just 64.4 ppg and shooting a mere 41.5 percent from the floor to rank 10th in the conference in both categories.

As for the Hawkeyes (10-21, 4-14), they had a season they would rather forget. Struggles at both ends of the court hurt the team, as it averages a league-low 60.8 ppg while surrendering 66.2 ppg to rank ninth. Additionally, Iowa ranks last in the Big Ten in turnover margin (-2.74) and doesn't have a player ranked in the top-15 on the league's scoring chart. Matt Gatens (12.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.3 apg) and Aaron Fuller (9.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) both received All-Big Ten Honorable Mention honors, but neither is capable of carrying a team. The Hawkeyes, who have two Big Ten Tournament titles to their credit with the last coming in 2006, comes into this event having dropped five of their last six games and nine of their last 11 overall. They lost twice to Michigan during the regular season.

The second game of the opening round features a matchup between seventh-seeded Northwestern and 10th-seeded Indiana. The winner of that bout moves on to face Purdue in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats (19-12, 7-11), who are just 4-12 all-time in this event and have never won the championship, had a solid campaign, although they would have liked to have performed better in conference. Northwestern is a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of scoring (69.5 ppg), but the team does have a star in sophomore forward John Shurna (18.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg). A better than 46 percent shooter in each of his first two collegiate seasons, Shurna recently picked up All-Big Ten Second-Team honors. NU defends the three-point shot better than any team in the conference (.315), and the team ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (1.5) as well.

The Hoosiers (10-20, 4-14) had an absolutely dreadful season, and they carried an 11-game losing streak going into the regular-season finale against this same Northwestern squad. Fortunately for Indiana, it was able to post an 88-80 overtime victory over the Wildcats at home to stop the slide. The loss of Maurice Creek (knee injury) after a dozen games hurt the team as the talented rookie was averaging 16.4 ppg. Verdell Jones III (14.8 ppg) and Christian Watford (12.1 ppg) are the only active players netting double figures on a consistent basis, and the Hoosiers, who are 8-12 all-time in the Big Ten Tournament and have yet to don the crown, rank last in the league in assists (12.2 apg), assist/turnover margin (0.8) and scoring defense (71.4 ppg).

The final game of the opening round has sixth-seeded Minnesota trying to stave off the upset bid of 11th-seeded Penn State. The winner will move into the quarterfinals to take on Michigan State. The Golden Gophers (18-12, 9-9) enter the postseason having alternated wins and losses over their last four games. Tubby Smith's team, which took out Penn State twice during the regular season, is the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten (.401), and as a result ranks second in the conference in scoring (73.4 ppg). The Gophers rank first in blocked shots (5.7 bpg) and assists (17.2 apg), and second in field goal percentage defense (.400). Lawrence Westbrook (12.9 ppg), Blake Hoffarber (10.7 ppg) and Damian Johnson (10.3 ppg) are all averaging double figures in scoring for the Gophers, who are seeking their first-ever Big Ten Tournament title.

The Nittany Lions (11-19, 3-15) have yet to raise the trophy in this event as well, and they have won just six of their previous 18 tourney tilts. Penn State put up fights against two of the teams that shared the league's regular- season title in its last two games, losing by a combined six points to Michigan State and Purdue. Prior to that, it had won three of four so the Lions are clearly playing better as they look to extend their season a bit longer. PSU boasts just one double-digit point producer on the roster, as Talor Battle (18.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.2 apg) leads the team in all three major statistical categories and ranks second in the conference in scoring. The team as a whole is producing just 65.3 ppg to rank ninth in the Big Ten, and its 64.3 ppg yield has it ranked seventh.

Fourth-seeded Wisconsin battles fifth-seeded Illinois in the quarterfinals on Friday, with the winner taking on the victor in the Michigan/Iowa vs. Ohio State game in the semis on Saturday. These same two teams met in the 2008 title tilt with UW prevailing in a 61-48 final to give the club its second Big Ten Tournament championship. The Badgers (23-7, 13-5), who have appeared in four of the last six title games, come into this postseason riding a four-game win streak, and they took care of this same Illinois squad in the regular- season finale in Champaign this past Sunday, 72-57. Although it has four double-digit scorers in the fold, UW's strength, as has been the case in virtually every year of coach Bo Ryan's tenure, is its defensive play as foes are scoring just 56.1 ppg -- the lowest yield in the league. The Badgers are the best free-throw shooting team in the Big Ten, led by Jason Bohannon's 86.6 percent effort. Trevon Hughes (15.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Jon Leuer (14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg) are the team's top two scorers, and they, along with Bohannon (12.0 ppg), were recently named All-Big Ten performers.

As for the Fighting Illini (18-13, 10-8), they had somewhat of a down year despite winning some big games along the way. Boasting four double-digit scorers led by All-Big Ten First Teamer Demetri McCamey (14.9 ppg, league- leading 6.8 apg), Illinois is averaging 70.5 ppg while allowing 66.5 ppg. The team is tops in the conference in field goal percentage defense (.399), while coming in second in defending the three-point shot (.316). In addition to McCamey, the Illini also have another award-winning player in the form of Big Ten Freshman of the Year D.J. Richardson (10.3 ppg, team-best 55 treys). Mike Tisdale (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 51 blocked shots) and Mike Davis (10.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) are both productive guys, and give coach Bruce Weber a solid quartet on which to rely. Illinois has the best tournament record of any team in the Big Ten (22-10), and the Illini have two titles to their credit, the most recent coming in 2005.

Ohio State (24-7, 14-4) boasts the Big Ten Player of the Year in Evan Turner (19.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 5.8 apg), who despite missing five games with a broken bone in his back, dominated the competition almost every time he took the floor. Three other OSU players averaged double digits in scoring during the regular season, as Turner made those around him better. William Buford (14.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg) picked up All-Big Ten Third-Team honors, and coach Thad Matta was voted the league's Coach of the Year by the media. The Buckeyes, who have played in three of the last four league tourney title games, are the conference's top scoring team (73.5 ppg) and they rank second in scoring defense (60.4 ppg). At 49.4 percent from the field and 37.9 percent out on the perimeter, there isn't much this Ohio State team doesn't do well. OSU is 15-10 all-time in the Big Ten Tournament, winning two titles along the way (2002, 2007).

As mentioned in the opening, Purdue (26-4, 14-4) is the defending Big Ten Tournament champion, and comes into this year's event having won 12 of its last 13 games. Not surprising considering the overall talent coach Matt Painter (Big Ten Coach of the Year as voted by his peers) has assembled, but somewhat so when you factor in the fact that one of the team's best players, Robbie Hummel (15.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .902 free-throw percentage), suffered a serious knee injury a couple of weeks ago. Still, Hummel, along with teammate E'Twaun Moore (16.7 ppg, 86 assists, 42 steals), was named to the All-Big Ten First Team. Purdue owns the league's third-best scoring margin (+11.5), and is tops in turnover margin (+4.90).

Michigan State (24-7, 14-4) closed out the regular season by winning two straight and four of its last five games overall, giving coach Tom Izzo's club some momentum as it attempts to win its third Big Ten Tournament title, and its first since claiming back-to-back crowns in 1999-2000. MSU owns a 13-10 record in the event, but hasn't appeared in the championship game since 2000. Kalin Lucas (14.9 ppg, 4.0 apg) is an All-Big Ten First-Team selection, and he highlights a group of four players averaging double digits for the Spartans, who are putting up 73.1 ppg while permitting 63.9 ppg. Rebounding is Michigan State's strength as it owns a +9.3 rpg advantage -- far and away the largest margin in the conference.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

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